Model Construction and Retrospective Validation of Large Earthquake Prediction

Zhiyong Zhu

Based on the hypothesis that gravity-driven crustal displacement generates earthquakes and facilitates crustal material migration, and following the general law that the velocity of generalized flow in a steady-state system is proportional to the driving force and inversely proportional to the system’s internal resistance, a relationship between the frequency of large earthquakes and crustal structure is constructed. And according to Noether’s theorems, the connection between large earthquake frequency and crustal energy state is elucidated. The occurrence frequency of large earthquake is therefore proposed to serve as a quantitative measure of the variation of crustal structure and energy state. By analyzing deviations of cumulative number of large earthquake from linearity dependence on time, a method for calculation of occurrence probability for large earthquakes is established, and a "τ" rule method that accounts for both seismic quiescent and active periods for predicting the timing of large earthquakes is also proposed. Retrospective studies show that the time prediction accuracy of both methods is significantly improved compared to predictions based solely on apparent periods. By performing earthquake probability calculations regionally and comprehensively analyzing the results by considering the spatial dependencies between regions, an attempt is made to assess the timing and location of future large earthquakes in certain areas of central mainland China.