Climate-Induced Risk to Food Security in Two Indian Indigenous Communities: Evaluating Impact and Associations Through Community Perception

Arka Ghosh, Shuvashree Nanda , Upasona Ghosh , Suparna Ghosh Jerath, Ruth DeFries

Food systems across low- and middle-income countries remain inadequately equipped to anticipate climate-sensitive risks, particularly among indigenous and ecologically dependent populations. While climate change impacts are frequently linked to food security, attention needs to be paid to how communities experience climate stressors in their food systems. Our study examines perceived climate exposure and its impacts on food production in relation to household food insecurity among two indigenous communities in India, to strengthen climate-resilient food systems, based on indigenous knowledge.
 
A cross-sectional survey was conducted in a subsample of 251 households from the Gond communities living in a hot and arid climate and the Am-beng subgroup of the Garo communities representing a hilly tropical monsoon region. We used a Retrospective Climate Impact Assessment Tool capturing climate perceptions over 20 years. Analyses were guided by a conceptual pathway linking perceived climate exposures to climate impacts across agriculture, natural resources and livestock. Household food security was assessed using the FAO Food Insecurity Experience Scale. Descriptive statistics and chi-square tests examined associations between perceived climate exposures, impact indicators and food security outcomes. A climate Impact Index to demonstrate the overall impediment of climate impacts experienced at the household level.
 
The study revealed that both communities perceived climate impact in the past two decades. They reported an increase in hot days (84.03% Am-beng Garo and 99.14% Gond) and erratic rainfall (79.83% % Am-beng Garo and 99.14% Gond) as the most prominent exposures. Agricultural impacts varied, particularly in changes in crop variety (35.29% for % Am-beng Garo and 87.40% for Gond), followed by changes in irrigation (16.81% for % Am-beng Garo and 51.18% for Gond). Food insecurity was significantly associated with crop and irrigation change, groundwater depletion, food accessibility, and livestock changes in Garo community; additionally, the Climate Impact Index also demonstrated significant (P < 0.001) climate burden on overall household food security. Gond perceived high temperature was associated with decreasing crop yield (P=0.04) and changes in the crop pattern (P=0.02). Findings revealed that households adopting coping strategies like changes in irrigation patterns or crop diversifications could reduce impacts on food security. However, the Climate Impact Index did not show a statistically significant influence on household food security among the Gond community, which may be due to the small sample size.
 
Our findings reflect that indigenous communities experiencing climate exposure and perceiving that climate impacts are disrupting all sources of food production-agriculture, natural resources and livestock. The study reconfirmed evidence of global climate impacts the local food system through community’s observations and experiences. It also demonstrated the potential of locally perceived climate signals and impact indicators to improve early warning and climate-informed food system adaptation in indigenous contexts. Future adaptation planning could be more effective if based on locally relevant climate parameters identified from the communities’ lived experiences. An early warning system integrating both meteorological and experiential parameters can provide a comprehensive and nuanced understanding of climate vulnerability and lived realities, especially for indigenous communities.