Integrating Climate Change into Hydraulic Hazard Assessment: A Comprehensive Two-Dimensional Modeling Approach on the Muto Stream Basin

Biagio Saya 

The Mediterranean basin is currently experiencing a profound shift in its climatological baseline, with extreme weather events striking coastal and inland catchments with unprecedented intensity. This changing paradigm forces engineers, hydrologists, and environmental planners to fundamentally rethink how spatial management and infrastructure design are approached. In this paper, we document and test a comprehensive methodology specifically tailored for high-risk, ungauged catchments. The primary study area is the Muto watershed, along with its highly responsive tributaries. By tightly coupling regional precipitation statistical analysis, modern climate change amplification factors, the SCS-CN hydrologic methodology, and advanced two-dimensional hydrodynamic routing (via HEC-RAS 2D), we successfully bridged the gap between theoretical atmospheric forecasting and high-resolution hydraulic hazard zoning. We present the mathematical formulations, assumptions, and GIS-based operational workflows that allow this framework to function as a legally defensible tool for hydrogeological safeguarding and urban planning in vulnerable territories.