Nature dependency analysis and the contributions to assessing nature-related risks

Crystal Bradley , Ben Milligan, Sarah Clement, Mitchell Lyons, Michael Vardon

Human dependency on natural capital and ecosystem services (ES) present significant risks to wellbeing and economic prosperity, which are poorly understood. While tools, such as the Exploring Natural Capital Opportunities, Risks and Exposure (ENCORE) database, provide valuable global dependency information, translating these insights into country-specific contexts remains challenging. Here, we present the Natural Capital Dependency Framework (NCDF), which advances dependency analysis by mapping specific relationships between ecosystem types and economic activities within countries. The NCDF uses existing data, and integrates global ecosystem classifications, and environmental and economic accounting standards to map direct dependency pathways with unprecedented specificity. Application to Australia and the Maldives demonstrates the framework's capability to reveal both direct and indirect dependencies despite vast differences in the granularity of available data. Direct nature-economy dependencies, concentrated in the primary industries (agriculture, fisheries, forestry, water, mining), are underpinned by 45 Australian and 21 Maldivian ecosystem types, predominantly through provisioning ES. Indirectly, all industries in both nations depend on ecosystems within three degrees of separation. Beyond economic dependencies, communities directly depend on ecosystems for essential health and safety services. By specifying dependency relationships in the context of national ecosystem information, the NCDF enables more accurate risk assessment and targeted policy responses – transforming natural capital dependency from an intangible problem to actionable national intelligence.