Causal Analysis of Key Factors Enhancing Drought Resilience through Water Management: A Hybrid Content Analysis, Fuzzy Delphi, and DEMATEL Approach

Zeinab Afzali, Mohammadreza Zare Mehrjerdi, Somayeh Amirteimouri, Hossein Mehrabi Basharabadi, Hamidreza Mirzaei Khalilabadi

This study aims to identify and analyze the key factors affecting drought resilience through water management and to examine the causal relationships among them. A mixed-methods sequential design was applied. First, a meta-synthesis and content analysis of studies published between 2005 and 2025 identified the main resilience factors. Then, the fuzzy Delphi method validated these factors through expert consensus, and fuzzy DEMATEL was used to analyze causal relationships among them. The results identified five main dimensions and fourteen components influencing drought resilience through water management. The fuzzy DEMATEL results showed that development of interactions and communications had the greatest influence within the system. Soft infrastructure development, cooperation and coordination, local community empowerment, technical water management, and continuous monitoring were the most influential components. The findings are mainly based on expert opinions and the context of Iran, which may limit their generalizability. However, the study provides a useful framework for resilience-oriented water management and policymaking. This study offers an integrated framework combining meta-synthesis, fuzzy Delphi, and fuzzy DEMATEL to provide a causal understanding of the factors affecting drought resilience through water management.