This is a Preprint and has not been peer reviewed. This is version 1 of this Preprint.
![Ratcheting up ambition in climate policy](/media/repos/1/40aab2d6-4c12-4d57-a93c-f005a57ea48c.jpg)
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Abstract
The historic Paris Agreement aims to constrain the peak increase in global mean temperature to 1.5 °C, or at least well below 2 °C. Every country has committed to device their own “nationally determined contributions” towards this target. These contributions are only proscribed for the coming 10-15 years with a regular reassessment of them against the global target. Here we use a global climate-economy model to explore consequences of differing levels of ambition during these reanalysis. We find that without substantially increased ambition the probability of avoiding 2 °C of warming is marginal. We present several plausible future trajectories that significantly increase the probability of avoiding 2 °C, but are unable to keep global temperatures below 1.5 °C. We advocate countries engage in the reassessment process soon and with high ambitions as catastrophic climate change can effectively be ruled out by such actions.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.31223/osf.io/5v32e
Subjects
Climate, Environmental Studies, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Keywords
integrated assessment model, PAGE, Climate-economics
Dates
Published: 2017-11-10 20:10
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