Ratcheting up ambition in climate policy

This is a Preprint and has not been peer reviewed. This is version 1 of this Preprint.


Download Preprint

Supplementary Files

Bishal Bharadwaj, Christopher M Brierley


The historic Paris Agreement aims to constrain the peak increase in global mean temperature to 1.5 °C, or at least well below 2 °C. Every country has committed to device their own “nationally determined contributions” towards this target. These contributions are only proscribed for the coming 10-15 years with a regular reassessment of them against the global target. Here we use a global climate-economy model to explore consequences of differing levels of ambition during these reanalysis. We find that without substantially increased ambition the probability of avoiding 2 °C of warming is marginal. We present several plausible future trajectories that significantly increase the probability of avoiding 2 °C, but are unable to keep global temperatures below 1.5 °C. We advocate countries engage in the reassessment process soon and with high ambitions as catastrophic climate change can effectively be ruled out by such actions.




Climate, Environmental Studies, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences


integrated assessment model, PAGE, Climate-economics


Published: 2017-11-10 12:10


Academic Free License (AFL) 3.0

Add a Comment

You must log in to post a comment.


There are no comments or no comments have been made public for this article.