Geospatial Assessment of Land Use and Land Cover Change Impacts on Wetland Ecosystem Services in West Arsi Zone, Ethiopia

Kanenus Fufa Dararo , Markos Taye Geneti, Santhi Swarup Manugula, Aster Chalchisa Eggi, Oliyad Gosomsa Bodena, Mitiku Badasa Moisa, Indale Niguse Dejene

Human livelihoods and well-being rely heavily on ecosystem services (ESs) provided by natural environments, with wetlands standing out as some of the most biologically diverse and economically valuable ecosystems worldwide. Despite their importance, wetlands face increasing threats from land use and land cover (LULC) changes driven by human activities. This study examines how LULC changes have affected wetland ecosystem service values (ESVs) in the West Arsi Zone of Oromia, Ethiopia, over a 30-year period from 1995 to 2025. Multi-temporal Landsat images were analyzed using cloud-based geospatial tools on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, and land cover classification was done with the Random Forest (RF) machine-learning algorithm. Field observations and ground reference data helped improve classification accuracy and identify the main drivers behind land cover changes. Ecosystem service values were estimated using a locally adapted benefit transfer method based on established valuation coefficients. The results show that rapid population growth, agricultural expansion, urban development, and infrastructure construction are the key forces driving LULC changes in the area. Settlement expansion significantly increased cropland-related ESVs from around USD 0.1 million to USD 2.5 million. However, this economic gain came mostly at the cost of wetlands, whose ecosystem service values dropped sharply from USD 1.17 million to just USD 0.05 million. Overall, the total ecosystem service value of the landscape fell by 3.9%, from USD 16.55 million in 1995 to USD 15.91 million in 2025. These findings highlight clear biodiversity loss and declining ecosystem function, emphasizing the urgent need for sustainable land-use planning that balances socio-economic growth with wetland conservation to protect long-term ecological health and human well-being.