Extreme UK Rainfall and Natural Climate Variability: Combining models and data

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Authors

Christopher M Brierley , Michael Simpson, Indrani Roy, Christopher Nankervis

Abstract

The return periods for extreme events are estimated from observational datasets. Often those datasets are relatively short in comparison to timescales of natural climate variability; potentially introducing a systematic bias into the extreme estimates. Here we combine observations with global climate models to show that this bias is statistically insignificant for the case of extreme UK-wide rainfall estimates. This is unlikely to hold for other locations and spatial scales, yet the methodology we have developed provides a simple approach to quantify the bias for other cases. [Funded by NERC NE/P000703/1; Determining Extreme Values for the Insurance Sector]

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31223/osf.io/v9ph8

Subjects

Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Keywords

ECRC Research Report 175

Dates

Published: 2017-11-10 19:55

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License

Academic Free License (AFL) 3.0

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