Extreme UK Rainfall and Natural Climate Variability: Combining models and data

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Authors

Christopher M Brierley , Michael Simpson, Indrani Roy , Christopher Nankervis

Abstract

The return periods for extreme events are estimated from observational datasets. Often those datasets are relatively short in comparison to timescales of natural climate variability; potentially introducing a systematic bias into the extreme estimates. Here we combine observations with global climate models to show that this bias is statistically insignificant for the case of extreme UK-wide rainfall estimates. This is unlikely to hold for other locations and spatial scales, yet the methodology we have developed provides a simple approach to quantify the bias for other cases. [Funded by NERC NE/P000703/1; Determining Extreme Values for the Insurance Sector]

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31223/osf.io/v9ph8

Subjects

Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Keywords

ECRC Research Report 175

Dates

Published: 2017-11-11 04:55

License

Academic Free License (AFL) 3.0

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