Global news reports reveal the human dimensions of water scarcity

Arushi Arnav , Lav R. Varshney, Megan Konar

Water scarcity has conventionally been estimated using hydrologic models that quantify pressure on water resources. Yet hydrologic stress does not necessarily translate into water shortages, as human adaptation can buffer physical constraints while infrastructure and institutional failures can create scarcity even where water is abundant. Here, we use large language models to identify news reports of concrete, recent water scarcity occurrences across 190 countries during 2014–2024. We find that RWS increases across most world regions, with 2023 exhibiting a pronounced global peak. Spatial patterns are highly heterogeneous and only partially align with conventional hydrology-based maps. Water-abundant regions, including the eastern United States, emerge as hotspots of reported scarcity, while some arid regions exhibit relatively little reporting despite substantial hydrologic stress. These contrasting patterns suggest that human adaptation, infrastructure, governance, and societal expectations may mediate the relationship between physical water constraints and experienced scarcity, although differences in media reporting may also contribute. By complementing hydrologic assessments with evidence of reported water scarcity, our approach offers a new perspective on how physical water constraints interact with human systems to produce—or prevent—water shortages.