The Rayleigh-Haring-Tayfun distribution of wave heights in deep water

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Saulo Matusalem da Silva Mendes , Alberto Scotti 


Regarding wave statistics, nearly every known exceeding probability distribution applied to rogue waves has shown
disagreement with its peers. More often than not, models and experiments have shown a fair agreement with the
Rayleigh distribution whereas others show that the latter underpredicts extreme heights by almost one order of magnitude. Virtually all previous results seem to be microcosms, special cases of the underlying essence of this phenomenon.
The present work focuses on the apparent contradiction among the majority of previous works. Based on the issue
of strong uneven distribution of rogue waves found in Stansell (2004), a new exceeding probability distribution for
rogue waves and the analysis of their uneven occurrence is conceived. The proposed distribution is a geometrical
composition of the most popular models for wave records (Longuet-Higgins, 1952; Haring et al., 1976; Tayfun, 1980)
with additional algebraic structures. The suggested distribution also obeys empirical physical bounds obtained from
the analysis of nearly 350,000 waves from storms recorded in North sea and supports the qualitative likelihood of
appearance interpretation based on the symbiosis among three sea state parameters.



Engineering, Fluid Dynamics, Hydraulic Engineering, Oceanography, Statistical Models


Exceeding Probability Distribution, Rogue Wave, Water Wave, Storms, Nonlinearity, Physical Bounds, Composition Law


Published: 2021-01-17 16:13

Last Updated: 2021-02-02 09:11

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