A newly reconciled data set for identifying sea level rise and variability in Dublin Bay

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Amin Shoari Nejad , Andrew Parnell, Alice Greene, Brian P Kelleher, Gerard McCarthy


We provide an updated sea level dataset for Dublin for the period 1938 to 2016 at yearly resolution. Using a newly collated sea level record for Dublin Port, as well as two nearby tide gauges at Arklow and Howth Harbour, we perform data quality checks and calibration of the Dublin Port record by adjusting the biased high water level measurements that affect the overall calculation of mean sea level (MSL). To correct these MSL values, we use a novel Bayesian linear regression that includes the Mean Low Water values as a predictor in the model. We validate the re-created MSL dataset and show its consistency with other nearby tide gauge datasets. Using our new corrected dataset, we estimate a rate of 1.08 mm/yr sea level rise at Dublin Port during 1953-2016 (95\% CI from 0.62 to 1.55 mm/yr), and a rate of 6.48 mm/yr during 1997-2016 (95\% CI 4.22 to 8.80 mm/yr). Overall sea level rise is in line with expected trends but large multidecadal variability has led to higher rates of rise in recent years.




Applied Statistics, Climate, Earth Sciences, Life Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Other Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Sciences, Statistics and Probability


dublin sea level, ireland sea level, seal level rise, tide gauge


Published: 2020-05-27 19:21

Last Updated: 2021-10-15 19:48

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GNU Lesser General Public License (LGPL) 2.1