Andrea Perez-Silva, Duo Li , Alice-Agnes Gabriel , Yoshihiro Kaneko

During the last two decades, quasi-periodic long-term slow-slip events (SSEs) of magnitudes up to Mw7.5 have been observed about every 4 years in the Guerrero Seismic Gap. Here we present numerical simulations of the long-term SSE cycles along the 3D slab geometry of central Mexico. Our model accounts for the hydrated oceanic crust in the framework of rate-and-state friction. The modeled SSE cycles capture the major source characteristics of the long-term SSEs occurring from 2001 to 2014, as inferred from geodetic observations. Synthetic surface deformation calculated from simulated fault slip is also in good agreement with the cumulative GPS displacements. Our results suggest that the flat segment of the Cocos plate aids the large magnitudes and long recurrence intervals of the long-term SSEs. We conclude that 3D slab geometry is an important factor in furthering our understanding of the physics of slow slip events.