Research 339: High-resolution climate projections for Ireland. A multi-model ensemble approach

This is a Preprint and has not been peer reviewed. The published version of this Preprint is available: https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.28360.14084. This is version 1 of this Preprint.

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Authors

Paul Nolan, Jason Flanagan

Abstract

The method of regional climate modelling was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the 21st-century climate of Ireland. The regional climate model (RCM) simulations were run at high spatial resolution (3.8 and 4 km), the first systematic study of its kind at this scale, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the projections can be partly quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the projections. Simulations were run for the reference period 1981 2000 and the future period 2041 2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. The Consortium for Small-scale Modeling Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) RCMs were used to downscale the following Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate model (GCM) datasets: CNRM-CM5, EC-EARTH (four ensemble members), HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR. To account for the uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emissions, the future climate was simulated under both the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 scenarios.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31223/X5Z32W

Subjects

Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Keywords

WRF, Precipitation, CMIP, Regional, Ireland, COSMO-CLM, Emissions

Dates

Published: 2021-03-02 16:09

Last Updated: 2021-03-03 00:09

License

CC BY Attribution 4.0 International

Additional Metadata

Conflict of interest statement:
None

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