Research 339: High-resolution climate projections for Ireland. A multi-model ensemble approach

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Paul Nolan, Jason Flanagan


The method of regional climate modelling was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the 21st-century climate of Ireland. The regional climate model (RCM) simulations were run at high spatial resolution (3.8 and 4 km), the first systematic study of its kind at this scale, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the projections can be partly quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the projections. Simulations were run for the reference period 1981 2000 and the future period 2041 2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. The Consortium for Small-scale Modeling Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) RCMs were used to downscale the following Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate model (GCM) datasets: CNRM-CM5, EC-EARTH (four ensemble members), HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR. To account for the uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emissions, the future climate was simulated under both the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 scenarios.



Physical Sciences and Mathematics


WRF, Precipitation, CMIP, Regional, Ireland, COSMO-CLM, Emissions


Published: 2021-03-03 03:09

Last Updated: 2021-03-03 11:09


CC BY Attribution 4.0 International

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