Projecting long-term armed conflict risk: an underappreciated field of inquiry?

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Authors

Sophie Pieternel de Bruin, Jannis Hoch , Nina von Uexkull , Halvard Buhaug , Jolle Demmers, Hans Visser, Niko Wanders 

Abstract

Little research has been done on projecting long-term conflict risks in response to climate change. Such projections are currently neither included in the development of socioeconomic scenarios or climate change impact assessments nor part of global agenda-setting policy processes. In contrast, in other fields of inquiry, long-term projections and scenario studies are established and relevant for both strategical agenda-setting and applied policies. Although making projections of armed conflict risk is surrounded by uncertainty, there are good reasons to further develop scenario projections of the future trajectory of armed conflict. In this perspective article we discuss why making quantitative projections of armed conflict in response to climate change is inherently uncertain, but necessary for shaping sustainable future policy agendas. We argue that both quantitative and qualitative projections can have a purpose in future climate projections and put out the challenges this poses for future research directions.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31223/X5HS5W

Subjects

Environmental Studies, Human Geography, Nature and Society Relations, Social and Behavioral Sciences

Keywords

climate change, armed conflict risk, science-policy interface, scenario development

Dates

Published: 2021-05-27 15:13

Last Updated: 2021-05-27 22:13

License

CC BY Attribution 4.0 International

Additional Metadata

Conflict of interest statement:
None

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