This is a Preprint and has not been peer reviewed. The published version of this Preprint is available: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102423. This is version 2 of this Preprint.
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Abstract
Little research has been done on projecting long-term conflict risks in response to climate change. Such projections are currently neither included in the development of socioeconomic scenarios or climate change impact assessments nor part of global agenda-setting policy processes. In contrast, in other fields of inquiry, long-term projections and scenario studies are established and relevant for both strategical agenda-setting and applied policies. Although making projections of armed conflict risk is surrounded by uncertainty, there are good reasons to further develop scenario projections of the future trajectory of armed conflict. In this perspective article we discuss why making quantitative projections of armed conflict in response to climate change is inherently uncertain, but necessary for shaping sustainable future policy agendas. We argue that both quantitative and qualitative projections can have a purpose in future climate projections and put out the challenges this poses for future research directions.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.31223/X5HS5W
Subjects
Environmental Studies, Human Geography, Nature and Society Relations, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Keywords
climate change, armed conflict risk, science-policy interface, scenario development
Dates
Published: 2021-05-27 13:13
Last Updated: 2021-12-05 18:55
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License
CC BY Attribution 4.0 International
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Conflict of interest statement:
None
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