Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability

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Authors

Keith Bradley Rodgers, Sun-Seon Lee, Nan Rosenbloom, Axel Timmermann, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Clara Deser, Jim Edwards, Ji-Eun Kim, Isla Simpson, Karl Stein, Malte Stuecker, Ryohei Yamaguchi, Tamas Bodai, Eui-Seok Chung, Lei Huang, Who Kim, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Danica Lombardozzi, William Wieder, Stephen Yeager

Abstract

While climate change mitigation targets necessarily concern maximum mean state changes, understanding impacts and developing adaptation strategies will be largely contingent on how climate variability responds to increasing anthropogenic perturbations. Here we present a new 100-member large ensemble of climate change projections conducted with the Community Earth System Model version 2 to examine the sensitivity of internal climate fluctuations to greenhouse warming. Our unprecedented simulations reveal that changes in variability, considered broadly in terms of probability distribution, amplitude, frequency, phasing, and patterns, are ubiquitous and span a wide range of physical and ecosystem variables across many spatial and temporal scales. Greenhouse warming will in particular alter variance spectra of Earth system variables that are characterized by non-Gaussian probability distributions, such as rainfall, primary production or fire occurrence. Our modeling results have important implications for climate adaptation efforts, resource management, and for seasonal predictions.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31223/X5GP79

Subjects

Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Keywords

Climate variability

Dates

Published: 2021-06-12 04:13

Last Updated: 2021-06-12 11:13

License

CC BY Attribution 4.0 International

Additional Metadata

Conflict of interest statement:
None

Data Availability (Reason not available):
Data is available here as of June 14th 2021: https://www.cesm.ucar.edu/projects/community-projects/LENS2/data-sets.html

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