A new tropical cyclone surge index incorporating the effects of coastal geometry, bathymetry and storm information

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Md. Rezuanul Islam , Chia-Ying Lee, Kyle T. Mandli, Hiroshi Takagi


This study presents a new storm surge hazard potential index (SSHPI) for estimating tropical cyclone (TC) induced maximum surge levels at a coast. The SSHPI incorporates parameters that are often readily available at real-time: intensity in 10-minute maximum wind speed, radius of 50-kt wind, translation speed, coastal geometry, and bathymetry information. The inclusion of translation speed and coastal geometry information lead to improvements of the SSHPI to other existing surge indices. A retrospective analysis of SSHPI using data from 1978–2019 in Japan suggests that this index captures historical events reasonably well. In particular, it explains ~66% of the observed variance and ~74% for those induced by TCs whose landfall intensity was larger than 79-kt. The performance of SSHPI is not sensitive to the type of coastal geometry (open coasts or semi-enclosed bays). Such a prediction methodology can decrease numerical computation requirements, improve public awareness of surge hazards, and may also be useful for communicating surge risk.




Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Risk Analysis


Storm surge, Risk Communication


Published: 2021-06-14 02:46


CC BY Attribution 4.0 International

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