A new tropical cyclone surge index incorporating the effects of coastal geometry, bathymetry and storm information

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Authors

Md. Rezuanul Islam , Chia-Ying Lee, Kyle T. Mandli, Hiroshi Takagi

Abstract

This study presents a new storm surge hazard potential index (SSHPI) for estimating tropical cyclone (TC) induced maximum surge levels at a coast. The SSHPI incorporates parameters that are often readily available at real-time: intensity in 10-minute maximum wind speed, radius of 50-kt wind, translation speed, coastal geometry, and bathymetry information. The inclusion of translation speed and coastal geometry information lead to improvements of the SSHPI to other existing surge indices. A retrospective analysis of SSHPI using data from 1978–2019 in Japan suggests that this index captures historical events reasonably well. In particular, it explains ~66% of the observed variance and ~74% for those induced by TCs whose landfall intensity was larger than 79-kt. The performance of SSHPI is not sensitive to the type of coastal geometry (open coasts or semi-enclosed bays). Such a prediction methodology can decrease numerical computation requirements, improve public awareness of surge hazards, and may also be useful for communicating surge risk.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31223/X53C85

Subjects

Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Risk Analysis

Keywords

Storm surge, Risk Communication

Dates

Published: 2021-06-14 10:46

License

CC BY Attribution 4.0 International

Additional Metadata

Conflict of interest statement:
None

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