Extended ISMIP6 projections for the Antarctic ice sheet with the model SICOPOLIS

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Authors

Christopher Robert Scott Chambers, Ralf Greve , Takashi Obase, Fuyuki Saito, Ayako Abe-Ouchi

Abstract

Ice-sheet simulations of Antarctica extending to the year 3000 are analysed to investigate the long-term impacts of 21st century warming. Climate projections are used as forcing until 2100 and afterwards no climate trend is applied. Fourteen experiments are for the “unabated warming” pathway, and three are for the “reduced emissions” pathway. For the unabated warming path simulations, West Antarctica suffers a much more severe ice loss than East Antarctica. In these cases, the mass loss amounts to a 14 experiment average of ∽3.5 m sea-level equivalent by the year 3000 and ∽5.3 m for the most sensitive experiment. Four phases of mass loss occur during the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. For the reduced emissions pathway, the mean mass loss is ∽0.24 m sea-level equivalent. By demonstrating that the consequences of the 21st century unabated warming path forcing are large and long-term, the results present a different perspective to ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). Extended ABUMIP (Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project)
simulations, assuming sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse, with and without bedrock rebound corroborate a negative feedback for ice loss found in previous studies.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31223/X5CP7C

Subjects

Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Keywords

modeling, Antarctica, ice shelf, climate change, ice sheet

Dates

Published: 2021-06-24 00:40

Last Updated: 2021-06-24 07:40

License

CC BY Attribution 4.0 International

Additional Metadata

Conflict of interest statement:
Ralf Greve is an Associate Chief Editor of the Journal of Glaciology

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