Does ENSO significantly affect rice production in Indonesia? A preliminary study using computational time-series approach

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Authors

Sandy Hardian Susanto Herho, Ferio Brahmana, Katarina Evelyn Permata Herho, Dasapta Erwin Irawan 

Abstract

ENSO is a phenomenon that is suspected to influence rice production in Indonesia. In this study, we try to find a direct correlation between ENSO and rice production in this region by using various latest computational time series methods, such as Dynamic Time Warping, Wavelet Coherence, and Bayesian Structural Time Series to quantify the statistical relationship between the Multivariate ENSO Index on annual rice production in 1961 - 2019. We did not find a direct correlation between these two variables, which may be due to the local influence of ENSO on different rice production areas in Indonesia.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31223/X5W33N

Subjects

Climate, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Keywords

ENSO, Wavelet transform

Dates

Published: 2021-08-15 10:33

Last Updated: 2021-08-15 17:33

License

CC BY Attribution 4.0 International

Additional Metadata

Conflict of interest statement:
None

Data Availability (Reason not available):
https://github.com/sandyherho/ensoIndoRice

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