Kyra S. Cutler, Sebastian Watt, Mike Cassidy, Amber Madden-Nadeau, Samantha Engwell, Mirzam Abdurrachman, Muhammad E.M Nurshal, David Tappin, Steven Carey, Alessandro Novellino , Catherine Hayer, James E. Hunt, Simon Day, Stephan Grilli, Idham Kurniawan, Nugraha Kartadinata

The lateral collapse of Anak Krakatau volcano, Indonesia, in December 2018 highlighted the potentially devastating impacts of volcanic edifice instability. Nonetheless, the trigger for the Anak Krakatau collapse remains obscure. The volcano had been erupting for the previous six months, and although failure was followed by intense explosive activity, it is the period immediately prior to collapse that is potentially key in providing identifiable, pre-collapse warning signals. Here, we integrate physical, microtextural and geochemical characterisation of tephra deposits spanning the collapse period. We demonstrate that the first post-collapse eruptive phase (erupting juvenile clasts with a low microlite areal number density and relatively large microlites, reflecting a crystal-growth dominated regime) is best explained by instantaneous unloading of a relatively stagnant upper conduit. This was followed by the second post-collapse phase, on a timescale of hours, which tapped successively hotter and deeper magma batches, reflected in increasing plagioclase anorthite content and more mafic glass compositions, alongside higher calculated ascent velocities and decompression rates. The characteristics of the post-collapse products imply downward propagating destabilisation of the magma storage system as a response to collapse, rather than pre- collapse magma ascent triggering failure. Importantly, this suggests that the collapse was a consequence of longer-term processes linked to edifice growth and instability, and that no indicative changes in the magmatic system could have signalled the potential for incipient failure. Therefore, monitoring efforts may need to focus on integrating short- and long-term edifice growth and deformation patterns to identify increased susceptibility to lateral collapse. The post-collapse eruptive pattern also suggests a magma pressurisation regime that is highly sensitive to surface-driven perturbations, which led to elevated magma fluxes after the collapse and rapid edifice regrowth. Not only does rapid regrowth potentially obscure evidence of past collapses, but it also emphasises the finely balanced relationship between edifice loading and crustal magma storage.