Yuting Zhang, Samuel Krevor, Christopher Aiden-Lee Jackson , Christopher Zahasky , Azka Aulia Nadhira

As a part of climate change mitigation plans in Europe, CO2 storage scenarios have been reported for the United Kingdom and the European Union with injection rates reaching 75 – 330 MtCO2 yr-1 by 2050. However, these plans are not constrained by geological properties or growth rates with precedent in the hydrocarbon industry. We use logistic models to identify growth trajectories and the associated storage resource base consistent with European targets. All of the targets represent ambitious growth, requiring average annual growth in injection rates of 9% – 15% from 2030-2050. Modelled plans are not constrained by CO2 storage availability and can be accommodated by the resources of offshore UK or Norway alone. Only if the resource base is significantly less, around 10% of current estimates, does storage availability limit mitigation plans. We further demonstrate the use of the models to define 2050 rate targets within conservative bounds of both growth rate and storage resource needs.