Estimating a social cost of carbon for global energy consumption

Estimates of global economic damage caused by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions can inform climate policy. The social cost of carbon (SCC) quantifies these damages by characterizing how additional CO2 emissions today impact future economic outcomes through altering the climate. Previous estimates suggest that large, warming-driven increases in energy expenditures could dominate the SCC, but they rely on models that are spatially coarse and not tightly linked to data. Here we show that the release of 1t CO2 today is projected to reduce total future energy expenditures, with most estimates valued between -$3 and -$1, depending on discount rates. O...  more

Estimates of global economic damage caused by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions can inform climate policy. The social cost of carbon (SCC) quantifies these damages by characterizing how additional CO2 emissions today impact future economic outcomes through altering the climate. Previous estimates suggest that large, warming-driven increases in energy expenditures could dominate the SCC, but they rely on models that are spatially coarse and not tightly linked to data. Here we show that the release of 1t CO2 today is projected to reduce total future energy expenditures, with most estimates valued between -$3 and -$1, depending on discount rates. Our results are based on a new architecture that integrates global data, econometrics, and climate science to estimate local dam- ages worldwide. Notably, we project that emerging economies in the tropics will dramatically increase electricity consumption due to warming, requiring critical infrastructure planning. However, heating reductions in colder countries offset this increase globally. We estimate that 2099 global electricity consumption rises ∼ 4.5 EJ/yr (7% current global consumption) while direct consumption of other fuels declines ∼ 11.3 EJ/yr (7% current consumption) per +1◦C increase in global mean temperature. Our finding of net savings contradicts previous research, because global data indicate that many populations will remain too poor for most of the 21st century to substantially increase energy consumption in response to warming. Importantly, damage estimates would differ if poorer populations were given greater weight.