Structural uncertainty and uncertainty management in four common Land Use Cover Change (LUCC) model software packages. A comparison

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David García-Álvarez, María Teresa Camacho Olmedo, Hedwig Van Delden, Jean François Mas, Martin Paegelow


Research on the uncertainty of Land Use Cover Change (LUCC) models is still limited. Through this paper, we aim to globally characterize the structural uncertainty of four common software packages (CA_Markov, Dinamica EGO, Land Change Modeler, Metronamica) and analyse the options that they offer for uncertainty management.
The models have been compared qualitatively, based on their structures and tools, and quantitatively, through a study case for the city of Cape Town. Results proved how each model conceptualised the modelled system in a different way, which led to different outputs. Statistical or automatic approaches did not prove to be more successful that user-driven approaches. The available options for uncertainty management vary depending on the model. No model pays enough attention to the communication of uncertainties.



Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Other Geography, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science


uncertainty, Land Use Cover Change Modelling, CA_Markov, Dinamica EGO, Land Change Modeler, Metronamica


Published: 2022-02-10 00:44

Last Updated: 2022-05-18 12:53

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Conflict of interest statement:
The third author of the paper (Hedwig Van Delden) is the director of the Research Institute for Knowledge Systems (RIKS), which develops, commercializes and promotes the Metronamica software. There is not any conflict of interest between the rest of the authors and the models assessed.