Isabella Arzeno-Soltero, Christina Frieder, Benjamin Saenz, Matthew Long, Julianne DeAngelo, Steven J Davis, Kristen Davis

International climate goals require over 5 gigatons/year (Gt/year) of CO2 to be removed from the atmosphere by midcentury. Macroalgae mariculture has been proposed as a strategy for such carbon dioxide removal (CDR). However, the global potential for seaweed cultivation has not been assessed in detail. Here, we develop and use a dynamic seaweed growth model, the Global MacroAlgae Cultivation MODeling System (G-MACMODS), to estimate potential yields of four different types of seaweed worldwide, and test the sensitivity of these estimates to uncertain biophysical parameters under two nutrient scenarios (one in which the surface ocean nutrient budget is unaltered by the presence of seaweed farms, and another in which seaweed harvest is limited by nutrients that are resupplied by vertical transport). We find that 1 Gt of seaweed carbon could be harvested in 0.8% of global exclusive economic zones (EEZs; equivalent to ~1 million km2) if farms were located in the most productive areas, but potential harvest estimates are highly uncertain due to ill-constrained seaweed mortality and nitrogen exudation rates. Our results suggest that seaweed farming could produce climate-relevant quantities of biomass carbon and highlight key uncertainties to be resolved by future research.