Climate sensitivity & resistance since the Industrial Revolution

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Authors

B. B. Cael, Francisco Calafat

Abstract

Climate sensitivity is a fundamental yet uncertain metric of Earth’s response to anthropogenic forcing; its temporal evolution in particular is poorly constrained yet critical for leveraging historical observations for future projections. A Bayesian energy balance model indicates a 83% (84%) probability that the climate sensitivity increased
(decreased) from 1900-1940 (1940-2010). These trends are attributable to spatial warming patterns likely to reverse in the future, and are distinct from Earth-system-model-derived analogs.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31223/X5463V

Subjects

Earth Sciences

Keywords

climate change, Bayesian statistics, Climate feedback, Pattern effect, Energy balance model, Climate sensitivity

Dates

Published: 2022-03-23 03:39

Last Updated: 2022-03-23 07:39

License

CC BY Attribution 4.0 International