Climate sensitivity & resistance since the Industrial Revolution

This is a Preprint and has not been peer reviewed. This is version 1 of this Preprint.

Add a Comment

You must log in to post a comment.


Comments

There are no comments or no comments have been made public for this article.

Downloads

Download Preprint

Authors

B. B. Cael, Francisco Calafat

Abstract

Climate sensitivity is a fundamental yet uncertain metric of Earth’s response to anthropogenic forcing; its temporal evolution in particular is poorly constrained yet critical for leveraging historical observations for future projections. A Bayesian energy balance model indicates a 83% (84%) probability that the climate sensitivity increased
(decreased) from 1900-1940 (1940-2010). These trends are attributable to spatial warming patterns likely to reverse in the future, and are distinct from Earth-system-model-derived analogs.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31223/X5463V

Subjects

Earth Sciences

Keywords

climate change, Bayesian statistics, Climate feedback, Pattern effect, Energy balance model, Climate sensitivity

Dates

Published: 2022-03-22 12:39

Last Updated: 2022-03-22 16:39

License

CC BY Attribution 4.0 International