Shuting Yang , Sara Hastings Simon , Arvind Ravikumar

Coal-to-gas switching in the power sector, as happened in the US, has been a key driver of near-term greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Can this success be replicated around the world? Here, we explore the limits of a global, plant-level, coal-to-gas transition arising from pipeline availability constraints. Globally, only 43% of coal capacity is within 14 km of a nearby pipeline, the median distance for recent coal-to-gas conversions. Furthermore, plant-to-pipeline distance distributions vary widely – only 30% of coal capacity in India is within 14 km of a nearby pipeline. Most global coal fleets are in the intermediate space of balancing two competing interests – having a young coal fleet with high avoided emissions potential through coal-to-gas switching but without access to low-cost gas resources. A global stocktake based on coal fleet age, pipeline access, and natural gas supply security suggests that a coal-to-gas transition is unlikely to be a universal climate solution.