Future projections for the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 2300 with a climate-index method

This is a Preprint and has not been peer reviewed. This is version 1 of this Preprint.


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Ralf Greve , Christopher Robert Scott Chambers, Takashi Obase, Fuyuki Saito, Wing-Le Chan, Ayako Abe-Ouchi


As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) was devised to assess the likely sea-level-rise contribution from the Earth's ice sheets. Here, we construct an ensemble of climate forcings for Antarctica until the year 2300 based on original ISMIP6 forcings until 2100, combined with climate indices from simulations with the MIROC4m climate model until 2300. We then use these forcings to run simulations for the Antarctic ice sheet with the SICOPOLIS model. For the unabated warming pathway RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, the ice sheet suffers a severe mass loss, amounting to ~1.5 m SLE (sea-level equivalent) for the fourteen-experiment mean, and ~3.3 m SLE for the most sensitive experiment. Most of this loss originates from West Antarctica. For the reduced emissions pathway RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, the loss is limited to a three-experiment mean of ~0.16 m SLE. The means are approximately two times larger than what was found in a previous study (Chambers and others, 2022, doi: 10.1017/jog.2021.124) that assumed a sustained late-21st-century climate beyond 2100, demonstrating the importance of continuously projected Antarctic climate change in the 22nd and 23th centuries.




Physical Sciences and Mathematics


Antarctic glaciology, climate change, Ice and climate, Ice-sheet modelling


Published: 2022-05-14 02:23


CC BY Attribution 4.0 International

Additional Metadata

Conflict of interest statement:
Ralf Greve discloses that he serves as an Associate Chief Editor of the Journal of Glaciology (term officially expired on 31 December 2021, still handling several papers, possible renewal under consideration).

Data Availability (Reason not available):
Data will be made publicly available at a later stage.

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