Robert L Kleinberg 

Methane is second only to carbon dioxide as a driver of human-induced climate change. Moreover, reducing the rate of methane emissions is the fastest and least disruptive way to moderate global temperature rise over the next several decades. The production of fossil fuels – principally coal, oil, and natural gas – is among the main sources of anthropogenic methane. As one of the world’s largest producers of fossil fuels, and one of the largest emitters of fossil fuel methane, the Russian Federation is central to methane-mitigation efforts. However, Russia’s own estimates of methane emissions vary greatly from year to year and are at variance with estimates of international data collection and research institutes. As a result of a recent series of large reductions, the self-reported methane emission intensity estimate of the Russian Federation oil and gas industry is now less than that of the United States oil and gas industry. If taken at face value, this estimate would make Russia a preferred provider of oil, gas, and petroleum products to importers sensitive to the upstream greenhouse gas emissions of their suppliers. Satellite-based, national-level estimates of Russian methane emissions are available, but the error bars are large and attributions to specific economic sectors unreliable. Satellites are more reliable in characterizing plume events, but the measurements are insensitive and only account for a small fraction of total emissions. Coal mine methane emissions are easier to characterize but harder to remediate than emissions from oil and gas sources. If Russia seeks to play a constructive role in climate change mitigation, it will need to collect accurate, quantitative information about the state of its emissions, introduce monitoring systems, and implement prudent mitigation measures.

This report starts with an introduction to the sources of natural and anthropogenic methane, and an explanation of why the fossil fuel industries in general and the Russian industries in particular have received a disproportionate share of interest. It then describes the difference between bottom-up and top-down measurements. It reviews the reports of methane emissions in Russia and the United States, pointing out similarities and differences in methodology and consistency, and explores the capabilities and limitations of satellite-based measurements. The report then discusses how methane emissions from the fossil fuel industries can be mitigated with a two-part program, and finally discusses policy issues with respect to styles of regulation.

Although the focus of this report is the Russian Federation, many practices described here are common internationally, including in the United States. Therefore, this report’s descriptions of the current practices, capabilities, and limitations of various methods of estimating and mitigating methane emissions have general applicability. Similarly, recommendations for improvement and discussions of policy have global applications.