Regional drivers of fire regimes in the Brazilian Amazon between 2009 and 2021

Michel Valette , Yiannis Kountouris, Anna Freni Sterrantino, Jeremy Woods, Morena Mills

Fires are a major source of carbon emissions in the Brazilian Amazon. Climatic and ecological processes affect the flammability of the landscape, while socio-economic processes influence the use of fire. An analysis of the regional drivers of fires used for land clearing, subsequent land management and forest fires is still missing, despite its importance in informing targeted policy interventions for controlling fire regimes. We investigated the social, economic and environmental determinant variables of deforestation, agricultural and forest fires between 2009 and 2021 in the Brazilian Amazon.  Pastures were associated with the highest number of deforestation and agricultural fires. Fire occurrence increased in remote locations and forests distant from agriculture between 2009 and 2021. Protected areas were associated with fewer fires but experienced more fires close to their borders. Our results highlight the importance of spatially resolved conservation initiatives and sustainable land management practices to curb fires and reduce environmental degradation.