Comparing the determinants of deforestation, agricultural and forest fires in the Brazilian Amazon between 2009 and 2024

Michel Valette , Yiannis Kountouris, Anna Freni Sterrantino, Jeremy Woods, Morena Mills

Fires are a major source of carbon emissions and biodiversity loss in the Brazilian Amazon. Climatic and ecological processes affect the flammability of the landscape, while socio-economic processes influence the use of fire. Understanding different types of fires and characterizing how economic, climatic and environmental conditions influence each, is essential for designing effective and targeted land and fire management policies. We investigated the social, economic and environmental determinants of deforestation, agricultural and forest fires between 2009 and 2024 in the Brazilian Amazon.  Pastures were associated with the highest number of deforestation and agricultural fires. Protected areas were associated with fewer deforestation and forest fires, and strictly protected areas and Indigenous land experienced more fires close to their borders. Fire occurrence also increased in remote locations between 2009 and 2024. Our results highlight the importance of spatially targeted management practices to curb fires and reduce environmental degradation.