Paul D Picciano, Sebastian David Eastham, Minghao Qiu , Mei Yuan, John M Reilly, Noelle Eckley Selin 

We quantify potential air pollution exposure reductions resulting from U.S. federal carbon policy, and consider the implications of resulting health benefits for exposure disparities across racial/ethnic groups. We assess reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of 50% in 2030 relative to 2005 levels, comparable in magnitude to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. Using energy-economic scenarios and an air quality model, we find reductions in average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure across racial/ethnic groups under a carbon pricing policy, with greatest benefit for non-Hispanic Black and white populations. However, the average relative gap in exposure between white people and people of color widens. Alternative choices of sources that reduce a similar amount of CO2 emissions also cannot substantially mitigate these disparities. Our results suggest that fully mitigating exposure disparities between white and non-white populations will require efforts beyond optimization of existing CO2 policy strategies, including large-scale structural changes.