Larissa Nora van der Laan, Kim Cholibois, Ayscha El Menuawy, Kristian Förster

In hydrology and water resources management, scenario-neutral methods are already common, mostly used to rapidly compare system responses to plausible changes in climate. As a first application in glaciology, a scenario-neutral approach, using climatic mass balance as a system response, is applied to four glaciers: Hintereisferner (AT), Peyto Glacier (CA), Austre Brøggerbreen (NO) and Abramov Glacier (KGZ). The Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) is used to perform a scenario-neutral glacier sensitivity analysis, resulting in visual, two-dimensional response surfaces, and a glacier sensitivity index (GSI). In addition, four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models (CMIP6) (FGOALS3, MPI-ESM1, EG-Earth 3, NorESM2), under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) (1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0, 5-8.5) are overlaid, for comparison. Assessing results shows that overall, Hintereisferner is most sensitive to changes in climate overall, and temperature especially, with a temperature GSI of 1.12 m w.e./°C - 1.96 m w.e./°C, versus, for example, a temperature GSI of 0.56 m w.e./°C - 0.81 m w.e./°C for Peyto glacier. Seasonally, we see differences in sensitivity between climatic variables and glaciers, too. Overlaying time slices of the CMIP6 models emphasizes how scenario-neutral approaches are suitable for use in glacier modelling, especially as a framework for sensitivity studies.