Iris van Zelst , Julia Maia, Ana-Catalina Plesa, Richard Ghail, Moritz Spühler

There is a growing consensus that Venus is seismically active, although its level of seismicity could be very different from that of Earth due to the lack of plate tectonics. Here, we estimate upper and lower bounds on the expected annual seismicity of Venus by scaling the seismicity of the Earth. We consider different scaling factors for different tectonic settings and account for the lower seismogenic zone thickness of Venus. We find that 95 - 296 venusquakes equal to or bigger than moment magnitude (Mw) 4 per year are expected for an inactive Venus, where the global seismicity rate is assumed to be similar to that of continental intraplate seismicity on Earth. For the active Venus scenarios, we assume that the coronae, fold belts, and rifts of Venus are currently seismically active. This results in 1,161 - 3,609 venusquakes >=Mw4 annually as a realistic lower bound and 5,715 - 17,773 venusquakes >=Mw4 per year as a maximum upper bound for an active Venus.