Michalis Hadjikakou , Nicholas Bowles, Ozge Geyik, Sjaak Conijn, Jose Mogollon, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Adrian Muller, Isabelle Weindl, Enayat A. Moallemi , M. Abdullah Shaikh, Kerstin Damerau, Kyle Frankel Davis, Stephan Pfister, Marco Springmann, Michael Clark, Genevieve Metson, Elin Röös, Bojana Bajzelj, Neal Graham, Dominik Wisser, Jonathan Doelman , Michaela Theurl, Prajal Pradhan, Miodrag Stevanovic, Christian Lauk, Jinfeng Chang, Vera Heck, Ertug Ercin, Liqing Peng, Nathaniel Springer, Lex Bouwman, Tiago Morais, Hugo Valin, Daniel Mason D'Croz, Karl-Heinz Erb, Alexander Popp, Mario Herrero, Patrice Dumas, Xin Zhang, Timothy Searchinger, Brett A. Bryan

Transforming the global food system is necessary to avoid exceeding planetary boundaries. A robust evidence base is crucial to assess the scale and combination of interventions required for a sustainable transformation. We developed a risk assessment framework, underpinned by a meta-regression of 60 global food system modeling studies, to quantify the potential of individual and combined interventions to mitigate the risk of exceeding the boundaries for land-system change, freshwater use, climate change, and biogeochemical flows by 2050. Limiting the risk of exceedance across four key planetary boundaries requires a high but plausible level of ambition in all demand-side (diet, population, waste) and most supply-side interventions. Attaining the required level of ambition for all interventions relies on embracing synergistic actions across the food system.