Global multi-hazard risk assessment in a changing climate

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Authors

Zélie Stalhandske, Carmen B. Steinmann, Simona Meiler, Inga Sauer, Thomas Vogt, David N. Bresch, Chahan M. Kropf 

Abstract

Natural hazards pose significant risks to people and assets in many regions of the world. Quantifying associated risks is
crucial for many applications such as adaptation option appraisal and insurance pricing. However, traditional risk assessment approaches have focused on the impacts of single hazards, ignoring the effects of multi-hazard risks and potentially leading to underestimations or overestimations of risks. In this work, we present a framework for modelling multi-hazard risks globally in a consistent way, considering hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities, and assumptions on recovery. We illustrate the approach using river floods and tropical cyclones impacting people and physical assets on a global scale in a changing climate. To ensure physical consistency, we combine single hazard models that were driven by the same climate model realizations. Our results show that incorporating common physical drivers and recovery considerably alters the multi-hazard risk. We finally demonstrate how our framework can accommodate more than two hazards and integrate diverse assumptions about recovery processes based on a national case study. This framework is implemented in the open-source climate risk assessment platform CLIMADA and can be applied to various hazards and exposures, providing a more comprehensive approach to risk management than conventional methods.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31223/X56W9N

Subjects

Applied Statistics, Climate, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Risk Analysis

Keywords

climate risk, multi-hazard

Dates

Published: 2023-04-20 21:47

Last Updated: 2023-12-08 00:03

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License

CC-BY Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International