Stronger Atlantic hurricanes: Validating Elsner et al. (2008)

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James B Elsner


Using satellite derived wind speed estimates from tropical cyclones over the 25-year period 1981--2006, Elsner et al. (2008) showed the strongest tropical cyclones getting stronger. They related the increasing intensity to rising ocean temperatures consistent with theory. Oceans continued to warm since that paper was published so the intensity of the strongest cyclones should have continued upward as well. Here I show that this is the case with increases in the upper quantile intensities of global tropical cyclones amounting to between 3.5 and 4.5% in the period 2007--2019 relative to the earlier base period (1981--2006). All basins individually show upward intensity trends for at least one upper quantile considered with the North Atlantic and Western North Pacific basins showing the steepest and most consistent trends across the quantiles.



Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics




Published: 2019-12-04 13:07

Last Updated: 2020-03-16 17:34

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GNU Lesser General Public License (LGPL) 2.1

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