Andrew James Cavanagh, Mark Wilkinson, R. Stuart Haszeldine 

A global path to net zero requires the permanent storage of carbon dioxide to reduce and remove atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions. We present an analysis of the gap between the CO2 storage required to meet net zero targets and the slow maturation of regional storage resources. We estimate that European storage rates need to increase 30-to-100x by 2030 to meet net zero by 2050. China and North America face a similar challenge. The slow global progress of CO2 storage undermines the latest IPCC, IEA, and EU transition pathways to net zero by 2050. These pathways imply a radically increased demand for carbon capture and storage and negative emission technologies, NETs, contributing 500 of 700 megatonnes of CO2 removal annually by 2050. Here, we investigate if sufficient storage can be developed in time. China (30%), North America (15%) and Europe (10%) dominate global emissions. We choose to analyse Europe as a data-rich exemplar. Assuming net zero in 2050, we back-calculate the storage required under three scenarios of low, medium, and high CCS demand. Even the low demand scenario requires 0.2 Gt of storage by 2030, increasing to 1.3 Gt by 2050. The moderate and high demand scenarios require 5-to-8 Gt by 2050. The current storage rate in Europe is 0.001 Gt/yr. There is a huge gap between policy demand and storage supply. Adaptation of existing hydrocarbon technology has the potential to close this gap, with CCS for the entire EU requiring less than half the historic rate of hydrocarbon exploration and development in the UK North Sea from 1980 to 2010. Counter to expectation, storage cannot be delivered by exponential growth but requires an early and sustained investment of 30-to-50 boreholes per year starting before 2030 to build sufficient capacity. A five-year lead-time to identify and mature prospects needs policy intervention before 2025. Continued policy deferral will lock Europe into a low CCS pathway that restricts the contribution of NETs at a potential cost of €100 billion for every gigatonne delayed beyond 2050. North America and China require similar policy intervention to close the gap on CO2 storage and net zero.