Lucie Clech , Juan Pablo Sierra , Muhammad Abdul Mannan , Mollah M. Shamsul Kabir , Mrittika Barua, Jhan-Carlo Espinoza , Valery Ridde

Bangladesh is one of the countries most affected by climate change. Internal migration is often presented as a response to environmental degradation in rural areas. Here, we hypothesise that climate-induced changes and adaptations impact local production and the local labour market, seasonally pushing out unskilled landless workers. We focus on different categories of livelihoods and their interactions to understand the local socio-ecological context for unskilled landless workers. We conducted fourteen semi-directed interviews and six focus group discussions with villagers in March-April 2022. We use a configurational approach considering changes>impacts> responses>impacts of responses to analyse our data for agricultural farmers, fish farmers, independent fishermen and unskilled workers. We conducted rainfall analysis on Chirps data for 1981-2021 to confront perception of changes to climate data.
Villagers reported that waterlogging was the most significant change. Covid-19 lockdowns were cited as an aggravating factor. Most climate-induced changes began to occur gradually over the past 25 years. Climate data compared with emic perception confirm these results. We find that changes, particularly climate-induced changes, increase local inequalities. The shift in land use to fish farming, partly driven by the motivation to adapt to waterlogging and salinisation, increases the waterlogging problem locally. As a result, farms are submerged, production is lost, and fewer jobs are available locally. Smallholder farmers suffer more than wealthier farmers and have more difficulty covering the losses associated with these changes and the costs associated with adaptations. Fishermen are converting to unskilled work, and unskilled and landless workers migrate to other rural destinations for labour.