Xia Zhu, Matthew J Hoffman, Chelsea Rochman

A global agreement on plastic should have quantitative reduction targets for emissions of plastic pollution and regular measurements to track success. Here, we present a framework for measuring plastic emissions, akin to greenhouse gas emissions, and demonstrate its utility by calculating a baseline measurement for the city of Toronto in Ontario, Canada. We identify relevant sources of plastic pollution in the city, calculate emissions for each source by multiplying activity data by emission factors for each source, and sum the emissions to obtain total annual emissions of plastic pollution generated. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate that 2,322 to 2,327 tonnes (T) of plastic pollution were emitted from Toronto in 2020. Littering is the largest source overall (1,733 T), and artificial turf is the largest source of microplastic (238 T). Quantifying source emissions can inform the most effective mitigation strategies to achieve reduction targets. We recommend this framework be scaled up and replicated in cities, states, provinces, and countries around the world to inform global reduction targets and measure progress towards reducing plastic pollution.