paolo de luca, Markus G. Donat

The impacts of hot, dry and compound hot-dry extremes are significant for societies, economies and ecosystems worldwide. Such events therefore need to be assessed in the light of anthropogenic climate change so that suitable adaptation measures can be implemented by governments and stakeholders. Here we show a comprehensive analysis of hot, dry and compound hot-dry extremes over global land regions using 25 CMIP6 models and four future emissions scenarios from 1950 to 2100. Hot, dry and compound hot-dry extremes are projected to increase over large parts of the globe by the end of the 21st century. Hot and compound hot-dry extremes show the most widespread increases and dry extreme changes are sensitive to the index used. Many regional changes depend on the strength of greenhouse-gas forcing, which highlights the potential to limit the changes with strong mitigation efforts.