Supath Dhital, Kapil Lamsal, Sulav Shrestha, Umesh Bhurtyal

Contemporarily, one of the most pressing concerns is reliable and rapid weather forecasting. In Nepal, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorological uses a numerical modeling approach to forecast the weather, which is tardy and requires high end equipment to process the information so deep learning approach will be best alternative. This project aims to forecast the next 2-hour Precipitation and Air Temperature for Pokhara Domestic Airport meteorological station and next day Precipitation, Maximum and Minimum air Temperature forecast for Lumle, Begnas and Lamachaur meteorological station, total of four meteorological stations of the Kaski District, Nepal using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM): a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and deploy the outputs through the web portal. The four hourly parameters: Rainfall, Relative Humidity (R.H), Wind Speed and Air Temperature were used for modeling the airport station forecast whereas Rainfall, Relative Humidity (R.H), Maximum and Minimum Temperature were used for modeling the Begnas and Lumle station forecast and only Precipitation data was used for Lamachaur station. Averaging and linear interpolation techniques were used to fill out the missing values and outliers were detected using Box Plot and replaced with threshold value for each parameter. Stochastic Gradient Descent and Adam optimizer are used to optimize the LSTM model. Among all the models prepared, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values range from 0.58 to 4.08 for precipitation model and from 0.16 to 0.82 for air temperature model and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) values range from 0.21 to 2.87 for precipitation model and from 0.12 to 0.64 for air temperature model were the values of the final model that indicates better accuracy for air temperature. The R² values range from 0.89 to 0.99 indicating the train and test data were fitted to the model really well.