Justine Okello , Luke Nyakarahuka, James Muleme, Collins Atuheire , George Seruwagi, Felix Lakor Opiyo, Glet Bitariho Kakuru, David Muwanguzi, Andrew Malata Phiri , Musso Munyeme , Clovice Kankya , Lian Thomas

Background: Infectious diseases have proven to be among the greatest challenges to life in the Anthropocene era. Their repeated and cyclical occurrences coupled with varying variants, and rapidly changing climatic conditions within this century threaten to take the world back to the “pre-development era” in the absence of corrective measures. We designed a research study to determine the influence of weather parameters on the spread of COVID-19 in Uganda from March 2020 to January 2022.
Methods: Records of COVID-19 mortalities and morbidities as well as weather elements from March 2020 to January 2022 were retrieved from the national data bases of the Ministry of Health and Meteorological Authority, respectively. Data analysis was conducted in STATA/SE 17.0. A generalized simple linear regression model was conducted to explore the climatic determinants of COVID-19 cases and deaths using the different predictor variables bivariate and multivariate regression analyses were conducted. A set of SEIR differential equations were analyzed to study the dynamics of COVID-19 with vaccination and temperature variations. The reproduction number and disease-free equilibrium were also analyzed. Simulations for to determine the behavior of COVID-19 with vaccination and varying temperature were performed using MATLAB software.
Results: Mean COVID-19 cases started gradually from the month of March 2020 at means of fewer than 10 cases till July 2020. From August to December 2020, the mean COVID-19 cases increased rapidly with mean cases of about 400 cases by the end of December 2020. a unit increase in the daily maximum temperature, the number of COVID-19 cases increased at 22.57 times [(95%CI =13.08-32.05), p-value <0.001]. Also, a unit increase in the daily temperature range, COVID-19 cases increased at 27.81 times [(95%CI = 17.60-38.01), p-value <0.001].
Conclusion: The present study reveals that different environmental weather parameters affected the deaths and cases of COVID-19. Increase in the daily maximum temperature resulted in the decrease of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Increase in the daily relative humidity resulted in to decrease of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Specifically, increase in the daily Rainfall amounts resulted in to decrease and increase in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths respectively. The same trend was exhibited by the daily windspeed.