Peter Pfleiderer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Jana Sillmann

Without stringent reductions in emission of greenhouse gases in the coming years, an exceedance of the 1.5C temperature limit would become increasingly likely. This has given rise to so-called temperature overshoot scenarios, in which the global mean surface air temperature increase above pre-industrial levels exceeds a certain limit, i.e. 1.5C, before bringing temperatures back below that level. Despite their prominence in the climate mitigation literature, the implications of an overshoot for local climate impacts is still understudied. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of implications of an overshoot for regional temperature and precipitation changes as well as climate extremes indices. Based on a multi-model comparison from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) we find that temperature changes are largely reversible in many regions, but also report significant land-ocean and latitudinal differences after an overshoot. For precipitation, the emerging picture is less clear. In many regions the drying or wetting trend is continued throughout the overshoot irrespective of a change in the global mean temperature trend with resulting consequences for extreme precipitation. Taken together, our results indicate that even under a reversal of global mean temperature increase, regional climate changes may only be partially reversed in the decades after peak warming. We thus provide further evidence that overshooting of a warming level implies considerable risks on the regional level.