David Fastovich, Tripti Bhattacharya , Lina C Pérez-Ángel, Natalie J. Burls, Ran Feng, Scott Knapp, Theodor Mayer

Westerly winds from the eastern equatorial Pacific direct moisture into the Western Cordillera of the northern tropical Andes, where subsequent orographic lifting creates the wettest regions in the world. The Choco low-level jet is emblematic of broader westerly winds in this region and is projected to weaken by the end of the 21st century, but climate models show considerable disagreement about the extent of weakening. Using contemporary observations, we demonstrate that the configuration of westerly winds in the eastern equatorial Pacific is reflected by hydrogen isotopes in precipitation (δDp ) in Ecuador. As westerly winds strengthen, δD p increases from greater transport of enriched δD vapor from the Eastern Pacific Warm Pool. We apply this framework to a new record of reconstructed δDp using leaf waxes in ocean sediments off the coast of Ecuador (ODP1239, 0 ◦ 40.32 0 S, 82 ◦ 4.86 0 W) that span the Plio-Pleistocene. Low δD p in the early Pliocene indicates weak westerly water vapor transport in a warmer climate state, which is attributed to a low sea surface temperature gradient between the cold tongue and off-equatorial regions in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Near the end-Pliocene (˜3 Ma), westerly water vapor transport weakens, possibly from shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, forced by high latitude Northern Hemisphere cooling. In complementary isotope-enabled climate simulations, a weak Choco jet and westerly water vapor transport in the early Pliocene are matched by a decrease in δD p and hydroclimate changes in the northern tropical Andes. Precipitation from the Choco jet can cause deadly landslides and weakened westerly winds in the early Pliocene implies a southward shift of these hazards along the Pacific coast of the northern tropical Andes in the future.