An updated landslide susceptibility model and a log-Gaussian Cox process extension for Scotland

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Authors

Erin Kelly Bryce, Daniela Castro-Camilo , Claire Dashwood, Hakan Tanyas , Roxana Ciurean, Alessandro Novellino , Luigi Lombardo 

Abstract

At the time of its development, GeoSure was created using expert knowledge based on a thorough understanding of the engineering geology of the rocks and soils of Great Britian. The ability to use a data-driven methodology to develop a national scale landslide susceptibility was not possible due to the relatively small size of the landslide inventory at the time. In the intervening 20 years the National Landslide Database has grown from around 6000 points to over 18,000 records today and continues to be added to. With the availability of this additional inventory, new data-driven solutions could be utilised. Here, we tested a Bernoulli likelihood model to estimate the probability of debris flow occurrence and a log-Gaussian Cox process model to estimate the rate of debris flow occurrence per slope unit. Scotland was selected as the test site for a preliminary experiment, which could potentially be extended to the whole British landscape in the future. Inference techniques for both of these models are applied within a Bayesian framework. The Bayesian framework can work with the two models as additive structures, which allows for the incorporation of the spatial and covariate information in a flexible way. The framework also provides uncertainty estimates with model outcomes. We also explored consideration on how to communicate uncertainty estimates together with model predictions in a way that would ensure an integrated framework for master planners to use with ease, even if administrators do not have a specific statistical background.
Interestingly, the spatial predictive patterns obtained do not stray away from those of the previous GeoSure methodology, but rigorous numerical modelling now offers objectivity and a much richer predictive description.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31223/X59388

Subjects

Applied Statistics, Geomorphology

Keywords

Landslide susceptibility; Landslide intensity; Scotland; log-Gaussian Cox process; Uncertainty estimation., Landslide susceptibility, Landslide intensity, Scotland, log-Gaussian cox process, Uncertainty Estimation

Dates

Published: 2024-02-01 08:36

Last Updated: 2024-02-01 16:36

License

CC BY Attribution 4.0 International

Additional Metadata

Conflict of interest statement:
None

Data Availability (Reason not available):
This data belongs to the British Geological Survey