The effects of precursory velocity changes on earthquake nucleation and stress evolution in dynamic earthquake cycle simulations

Prithvi Thakur , Yihe Huang

Seismic velocity changes in earthquake cycles have been observed over a wide range of timescales and may be a good indicator of the onset of future earthquakes. Understanding the effects of precursory velocity changes right before seismic and slow-slip events could potentially elucidate the onset and timing of fault failure. We use numerical models to simulate fully dynamic earthquake cycles in 2D strike-slip fault systems with antiplane geometry, surrounded by a narrow fault-parallel damage zone. By imposing S-wave velocity changes inside fault damage zones, we investigate the effects of these precursors on multiple stages of the seismic cycle, including nucleation, co- seismic, postseismic, and interseismic stages. Our modeling results show a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors including fast earthquakes, slow-slip events, and variable creep. One primary effect of the imposed velocity pre- cursor is on the earthquake nucleation phase, and earlier onset of precursors causes earthquakes to nucleate sooner with a smaller nucleation size that is not predicted by theoretical equations. Furthermore, such precursors af- fect the nucleation of dynamic earthquakes and slow-slip events. Our results highlight the importance of short- and long-term monitoring of fault zone structures for better assessment of regional seismic hazard.