This is a Preprint and has not been peer reviewed. This is version 4 of this Preprint.

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Abstract
Seismic and aseismic slip events result from episodic slips on faults and are often chaotic due to stress heterogeneity. Their predictability in nature is a widely open question. In this study, we forecast extreme events in a numerical model. The model, which consists of a single fault governed by rate-and-state friction, produces realistic sequences of slow events with a wide range of magnitudes and inter-event times. The complex dynamics of this system arise from partial ruptures. As the system self-organizes, the state of the system is confined to a chaotic attractor of a relatively small dimension. We identify the instability regio... more
DOI
https://doi.org/10.31223/X56Q5D
Subjects
Earth Sciences
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Dates
Published: 2024-03-18 01:23
Last Updated: 2024-11-18 22:39
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