Spatiotemporal forecast of extreme events in a chaotic dynamical model of slow slip events

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Authors

Hojjat Kaveh , Jean-Philippe Avouac , Andrew Mark Stuart

Abstract

Seismic and aseismic slip events result from episodic slips on faults and are often chaotic due to stress heterogeneity. Their predictability in nature is a widely open question. In this study, we forecast extreme events in a numerical model. The model, which consists of a single fault governed by rate-and-state friction, produces realistic sequences of slow events with a wide range of magnitudes and inter-event times. The complex dynamics of this system arise from partial ruptures. As the system self-organizes, the state of the system is confined to a chaotic attractor of a relatively small dimension. We identify the instability regio...  more

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31223/X56Q5D

Subjects

Earth Sciences

Keywords

Dates

Published: 2024-03-18 01:23

Last Updated: 2024-11-18 22:39

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License

CC BY Attribution 4.0 International