Rapid earthquake-tsunami modeling: The multi-event, multi-segment complexity of the 2024 Mw 7.5 Noto Peninsula Earthquake governs tsunami generation

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Authors

Fabian Kutschera , Zhe Jia, Bar Oryan, Jeremy Wing Ching Wong, Wenyuan Fan, Alice-Agnes Gabriel

Abstract

The January 1st, 2024, moment magnitude (Mw) 7.5 Noto Peninsula earthquake ruptured in complex ways, challenging timely analysis of the tsunami generation. We present rapid and accurate tsunami models informed by a 6-subevent centroid moment tensor (CMT) model that we obtain by inverting teleseismic and strong motion data and validation against geodetic observations. We identify two distinct bilateral rupture episodes, including six subevents and a re-nucleation episode at its hypocenter 20 seconds after its initiation, likely aided by fault weakening. We construct a complex uplift model that aligns with known fault system geometries and is critical in modeling the observed tsunami. Our tsunami simulation can explain wave amplitude, timing, and polarity of the leading wave, which are crucial for tsunami early warning. Analyzing a 2000 multi-CMT solution ensemble and comparing to alternative rapid source models, we highlight the importance of incorporating complex source effects for realistic tsunami simulations.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31223/X5ZX1S

Subjects

Geophysics and Seismology

Keywords

earthquake modeling, tsunami, Centroid moment tensor inversion, fault geometric complexity, Japan

Dates

Published: 2024-04-14 06:16

Last Updated: 2024-04-14 13:16

License

CC BY Attribution 4.0 International