Christopher Callahan, Jane Baldwin, Renzhi Jing, Marshall Burke, Noah S Diffenbaugh

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have direct economic impacts, destroying property, crops, and infrastructure. However, the sign and magnitude of their indirect impacts via longer-term changes in economic output remain unclear. Here we use data on TC winds and county-level income in the U.S. to quantify the indirect impacts of TCs on incomes in the years following a TC. We find a nonlinear response of income growth to TCs: most TCs persistently depress income, but the strongest TCs do not appear to affect income, likely due to the compensating effect of federal disaster aid following strong storms. We find that TCs have collectively reduced U.S. income by $30 trillion over 1980-2019, >20 times their direct losses. These findings highlight that disaster response can ameliorate indirect disaster impacts, but that to date such responses have not avoided large accumulating losses from TCs.